ABSTRACT
To date, the selection of a project portfolio that maximises the decision-making outcome remains essential. However, existing research on project synergy has mainly focused on two projects, while there are multiple projects in some cases. Two kinds of synergies among multiple projects are proposed. First, multiple projects must be selected together, in order to produce synergy. Second, some projects depend on synergy with other projects, leading to a synergetic increase in performance. Furthermore, we present strategic synergy, with benefits, resources, and technology, which is quantified for a procurement project concerning a COVID-19 pandemic recovery plan. A design structure matrix is used to describe the technology diffusion among the projects. Then, strategic alignment is utilised to measure the strategic contribution of projects. Next, a portfolio selection model considering uncertainty is established, based on the strategic utility. Finally, our results indicate that selecting projects considering multi-project synergy is more advantageous. © 2023, Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization. All Rights Reserved.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to quantify the evolutionary mechanism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on international construction multi-projects. Design/methodology/approach: From three concepts of complexity, stressor and detractor risks, a multi-project simulation model under COVID-19 outbreak is proposed to study the characteristics of contingency with three peaks of ordered and disordered states. Specially, COVID-19 brings forth mitigation fee, epidemic prevention fee, holdup fee and schedule delay fee of multi-projects. By integrating parametric model, Monte Carlo and chaos theory, a comparative analysis of its contingency with or without COVID-19 is conducted. Summarizing the simulated results, their total contingencies at certain risk tolerance are obtained at two status of static at one-time point and dynamic over time. Meanwhile, some major risks including detractors, complexities and stressors are screened out for mitigation, especially for epidemic prevention and control. Eventually, the real case is illustrated to demonstrate its validity. Findings: It provides a quantitative analysis framework for the impact of epidemic, a once-in-a-century black swan event with a long tail, on construction multi-projects. Practical implications: It conduct an effective model to quantify impacts of COVID-19 on international construction multi-projects for implementing effective counter-measures, which lay foundation for claims among different stakeholders. Originality/value: The term of detractor risk is applied to describe COVID-19 and quantify its impact upon international construction multi-projects. Further, a hybrid model by integrating parametric model and Monte Carlo in type I/II model is proposed to simulate their contingencies at disordered states. Finally, the simulated outcomes of these models are used to guide effective risk control to meet the requirements by the client. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.